Replay Now Available
Option Pit · Live Trading Intensive · Day 1

SpaceX

Live Trading June 17th & 18th

Mark Sebastian  ·  Licia Leslie  ·  Option Pit

★ Option Pit · SpaceX Trade
To Get The Next SpaceX Trades, Enter Your Phone Number Here
Enter Your Phone Number →
0:000:00
Vol100%
Session Breakdown

Key Moments & Timestamps

// Click any timestamp to jump to that moment in the replay

Welcome — Why We're Live-Trading SpaceX
Mark, Hannah, and Licia open the session. Everyone's been talking about SpaceX — so instead of talking about it, they're going to live-trade it. Day one of a two-day intensive: breakdown, IPO history, and the actual trade.
Day 1 Agenda: What We're Covering Today
A preview of the hour: SpaceX price action from day one, historical IPO comparisons, the problem with simply buying upside calls, the better trade structure, and Licia's live pitchfork analysis with price targets.
SpaceX Day 1 Volume: 1.72 Million Contracts — A Record
The previous IPO options record was Facebook's 345,000 contracts on day one. SpaceX obliterated it with 1.72 million — the equivalent of 172 million shares of stock. It traded more options than NVIDIA, Tesla, and Apple on the same day.
Licia's Background: She Chaired the CBOE Allocation Committee
From 2000–2003, Licia chaired the CBOE committee that decided which trading pits got newly listed options. She knows exactly what "narrow markets" and "deep liquidity" look like from day one — and SpaceX surprised even her with how tight the spreads were.
$180 Million in Net Premium Traded on Day 1
Not volume — net premium actually paid. This measures "I want this right now" demand: traders walking into the lot and saying "I'll take it." SpaceX saw more premium change hands than the entire SPX on its first day.
IPO IV Patterns: Cerebras, ARM, Rivian — The Warning
Three historical case studies showing the same pattern: options are extremely expensive at IPO launch, hold briefly, then collapse. Rivian's IV dropped 100 points in a single hour. ARM's fell ~20% in two weeks. These are the headwinds SpaceX call buyers are fighting.
SpaceX IV Crush in Real Time: Stock Up $5, Calls Down $0.50
Mark walks through the 210-strike June calls minute by minute from yesterday. At 9:30 AM, IV was 257 and the option cost $15. By 10:30, SpaceX stock was up $5 — yet the calls had lost $0.50. This is IV crush, live, on day one.
Reading the Skew: The Nike Swoosh and YOLO Demand
Mark pulls up the full IV curve by strike. At-the-money is cheapest (institutional sellers). Far out-of-the-money calls spike up in a "Nike swoosh" — that's retail YOLO demand. The 280 calls, 50% OTM and expiring tomorrow, still had a bid. July tells a different story on the put side.
If You Must Buy a Call: The 200 Strike (Not Recommended)
Mark acknowledges some people will buy calls regardless. If you're going to do it: buy close to the money — the 195s or 200s are relatively the cheapest on the curve. Mark won't buy it for himself, won't buy it for anyone he likes, won't even buy it for his worst enemy. But if you insist, that's the one.
The Real Trade: Trade Like a Market Maker — Buy Cheap, Sell Expensive
Mark's core philosophy: buy the relatively cheaper at-the-money option, sell the inflated YOLO strike against it. The 215 call — $25 out of the money — costs $1.25. The Toyota Camry priced at $75K. The 195 call costs $5. The Lexus at fair value. That structure is the spread.
Spread Walkthrough: Buy 195 / Sell 215, Risk $375, Max Gain $1,625
Live example of the call spread structure: pay $3.75 debit, max gain $20 per share if SpaceX closes above $215. That's 4:1 risk-reward. Break-even is $198.75 — you only need a small bounce. At $205, you're already up over 100% on risk.
How to Size the Spread Using the Straddle Price
Mark explains how he picks spread width: price the at-the-money straddle (190 call + 190 put = $14). That's the market's expected move. Buy the lower strike inside that range (195), sell the upper strike outside it (215). YOLO demand keeps the 215 overpriced — that's the edge.
Licia's Pitchfork: Bearish Signal, Wait for the Afternoon
Licia shows her 5-minute, 30-minute, and daily charts. SpaceX tested the pitchfork median line at the open and sold off, closing the gap from yesterday. Her read: possibly a shooting-star candle forming. She won't recommend a direction until 3:00–3:30 PM, after the Fed at 2:00 PM.
How to Get Today's Trade: SMS Alert at 3:00–3:30 PM ET
The actual trade won't be posted in the session — it'll be texted out between 3:00 and 3:30 PM. Sign up via the link in chat. The text will contain a link (not the trade directly — SMS rules prevent it); click through for the full alert with strike, structure, and targets.
Day 2 Preview: Recap, Updated Pitchforks, and What's Next for SpaceX
Tomorrow's session (June 18th, 10:30–11:30 AM) will review the trade outcome, look at updated Licia pitchforks, and discuss 30/60/90-day SpaceX scenarios. Weekly options may arrive soon — Mark expects CBOE to expand the expiration schedule once the initial frenzy settles.