I'd Trade That

with Garrett Baldwin · Powered by Option Pit

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Episode Guide Episode Five — Key Moments

Click any timestamp to jump straight to that moment in the replay.

The Rules of the Show

No buy-and-hold. No all-time highs. No "what do you think about my portfolio?" Everything Garrett brings to the table, he would actually trade — and tells you exactly why.

Meet the Triples Signal

Garrett's proprietary momentum tool collapses short-, mid-, and long-term breakout data to a single score. Today's S&P reading is 43. Here's what that number means — and the one moment it went negative that you absolutely need to know about.

Don't Bet Against This Market (Yet)

Leverage is at the 99th percentile. Net long exposure is at a five-year high. Garrett explains why that's not a buy signal — and the one precise condition that has to flip before he'd ever consider fading this rally.

The Triples Breakout List

Broadcom running. Humana holding. Micron doing something that took Apple 1,700 days — in a matter of weeks. Garrett breaks down exactly why that happened and what it means for names like Marvell going forward.

The SpaceX Trade Nobody's Telling You About

Every newsletter is selling you the same four names. Garrett gives you the full list in three minutes — then explains why the real trade on SpaceX IPO day might be a short, and which stocks become sells the moment it goes sideways.

Bitcoin: Cracks in the Wall

Strategy just sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. Goldman called it a failed safe haven. $2.4 billion left Bitcoin ETFs in May alone. Garrett walks through the MicroStrategy short setup — entry, stop, and why the 8-day/20-day cross is the only line that matters.

The LNG Trade (And How to Structure It)

Hedge funds are dead short energy. European gas storage sits at 70%. The US is the only supply source that can fill a 20-million-ton winter shortfall. Garrett shows the Cheniere setup live — stock entry, call spread construction, breakeven, and target price.

The Obesity Drug Nobody's Watching

The shot is becoming a pill. Goldman's new model sees a $122 billion market by 2035 — four times expansion from here. Garrett explains why the cheaper pill could actually punish one of the two names in this race, even as the category explodes.

The Capital Wave: What the Plumbing Is Saying Right Now

Garrett's capital flow signal has gone negative before every major market crisis since COVID — Silicon Valley Bank, the gilt crisis, Liberation Day. Right now it's showing weakness. He walks through exactly what that means for today's market and what single number he's watching above everything else.

Today's Strongest Stocks vs. Today's Weakest

Hewlett Packard, Micron, Dell, Cisco, IBM — these are the names holding momentum. On the other side: insurance companies cracking on private credit concerns, Tyson and Conagra compressing on input costs, Coinbase under pressure. Garrett maps exactly where strength is concentrated and where the rot is spreading.

Don't Short Nvidia Yet. Here's Why.

The capital wave isn't negative yet — and until it is, fighting the crowd in mega-cap tech is a losing battle. ETFs, CTAs, prime desks, and 0DTE dealers are all mechanically buying the same names every two weeks. Garrett explains the exact signal that gives you permission to finally take aim at the S&P and semiconductor index.

This Rally Is One of the Rarest Since World War II

A 16% move off the lows. The only other times this has happened outside of a recession: 1987, right before Black Monday. Garrett draws the parallel, explains how behavioral finance turns these events into momentum cascades, and lays out why deficits — not fundamentals — are the real engine behind this market.

The Software Short Setup (IGV Put Spread)

Software ran 14 straight days on a short squeeze — and that's typically how tops form. Funds started selling the week before. Now IGV is hovering at its 8-day moving average. Garrett walks through the exact put spread structure: entry level, strike selection, expiration, and the one price action signal that tells you to walk away and wait.

Copper: Don't Chase the Sulfur Story

China suspended sulfuric acid exports through December. ANZ sees up to 6% supply at risk. Hormuz carries half the world's traded sulfur. Every financial newsletter just became a sulfur expert — and that's exactly the problem. Garrett shows why the smarter trade is waiting for copper to pull back to its 100-day moving average before selling spreads into Southern Copper.

Bitcoin VWAP Trade: How to Play It With Zero Overnight Risk

Bitcoin is under extreme pressure — $2.5 billion left ETFs in May, MicroStrategy is selling, and a colleague is calling $53K. Garrett teaches the IBIT VWAP setup live: where to buy (third standard deviation band), how many contracts, when to scale out on the way back to VWAP, when to let the last one run, and the exact line that tells you you're done for the day.

Devon Energy and the OILU: The Cleanest Energy Trade There Is

Crude inventories just hit their lowest level since 2004. Devon got an $8 billion offer for its Marcellus assets. EQT upgraded at Moody's the same week. Garrett breaks down the OILU — the triple-bull upstream oil ETN — shows three bounces off the 100-day moving average, and explains why Devon and APA are the cleanest way to play the next energy move when RSI turns oversold.

The Jobs Report: The Good, the Bad, and the "What the…"

Friday's print looks clean on the surface — 188K three-month average, firm wages, leisure sector adding 70K. But finance shed 22K jobs and is down 107K from peak, long-term unemployment is climbing past 2 million, and 52K of the new jobs are local government hires nobody can account for. Garrett breaks down exactly why this report isn't as strong as the headline.

The One Line Garrett Won't Short Below

Momentum went briefly negative on the Russell yesterday — but the cap-weight signal held positive. Garrett explains why that distinction is everything: he will not short this market until cap-weight goes negative, and lays out the exact futures levels (7,500 and 7,480) where mechanical buyers show up and change the tape.

Why Everyone Is Wrong About Agriculture

Wall Street is screaming higher wheat, higher corn, buy fertilizer names. The DBA is oversold and rolling over. CF Industries, Mosaic, and Nutrien are all under their moving averages and selling. Garrett — Purdue Ag Economics, class of 2013 — explains the structural reason the commodity can be right while the fund still loses, and why chasing these names makes you the exit liquidity.

The Actual Ag Trade: ADM Put Spread Setup

ADM is the railroad of agriculture — it captures food price momentum without the roll-yield bleed of a futures fund. Garrett walks through the exact structure: July 77.50/75 put spread, 76% probability of profit, 20% return, $77 breakeven, annualized gain of 171%. The setup that gets you exposure to the theme without speculating on futures.

VWAP Master Class: Trading IBIT on a Jobs Day

Bitcoin just broke a three-month low and IBIT is trading at February levels. Garrett uses it as a live classroom: how VWAP standard deviation bands work, why the 4th deviation is a mean-reversion entry, how to scale out on the way back to the mean, and why 0DTE options on IBIT make this one of the cleanest short-term setups in the market right now.

Oil: The Real Trade Is in the Refiners

Crude is stuck in a 92–97 range — buying it here is chasing. The real squeeze is in crack spreads, and that means Valero and Marathon (MPC). Garrett identifies the Valero setup at the 241–242 level as next week's entry for a run back to 260, and revisits the OIOU as the line in the sand for the broader upstream energy trade.

Power Is Still the Constraint — But Wait for Oversold

Goldman Sachs finally caught up to what Garrett said six and a half months ago: the AI constraint is power. CEG, VST, and GEV are the pick-and-shovel plays — but they're in a lower-high, lower-low pattern right now. Garrett explains exactly when to step in: RSI and MFI oversold at the same time, and what that trigger looks like historically on names like Constellation.

Gold: China Pulled $260 Billion and Hit the Brakes

Gold ran from $1,800 to $4,400 — now it's pulling back 20% from the high and everyone's panicking. Garrett explains why: China drove the run, and China just yanked $260 billion in 12 weeks. This is a buy-the-weakness setup, not a bail. He lays out the PHYS entry level, explains the GDXU leverage signal to watch, and tells you what the 8/20-day crossover means when it finally turns.

The Signal That Called Every Major Crash Since COVID

Broad market momentum went negative on Thursday — and Garrett walks through every time it's done this: COVID, Archegos, June 2022's hedge fund wipeout, the gilt crisis, SVB, the Nikkei crash, Liberation Day. Every major sell-off in five years started here. It just flipped again, and Friday's semi bloodbath (SOXX down 10%, SOXL down 30%) was the result.

Why Today's Squeeze Is a Selling Opportunity, Not a Buy Signal

After a 2.6% drop — the worst semi day since COVID — the market is bouncing on low volume. Garrett explains exactly why that's a trap: the algorithms pushing it up are giving people who didn't sell Friday another chance to exit. He lays out the 7,400 key level where funds are forced to sell, and the precise VWAP line that determines whether you trade it long or short.

The Only Stocks Worth Trading Right Now (and the Ones to Short)

Garrett runs the Triples breakout/breakdown list live. Long side: Eli Lilly, Hewlett Packard, Apple — high liquidity, tight spreads, 0DTE options, and the kind of intraday round trips that pay. Short side: Coinbase, CME Group, Kraft Heinz, Hershey, General Mills. He explains why you only need five to ten names and how to work them around VWAP all day.

Nuclear + Pipelines: The Trade and the Investment

CCJ and SMR just got crushed in the sell-off — which is exactly when these names become interesting. Garrett walks through the CCJ VWAP setup: break above the line, buy the 106 call, target 107.50–110. Then he breaks the show's own rules and makes the case for owning pipelines (Energy Transfer, Enterprise Partners, the EMO closed-end fund) as a dividend engine that funds your speculative trades.

The Regime Rotation: Why Boring Stocks Are About to Get Interesting

Utilities (XLU), healthcare (XLV), and regional banks (KRE, DPST) outperformed on Friday — and Garrett explains why that matters. He walks through the four stages of a liquidity cycle, argues we're entering the boring fourth phase, and shows why names like General Mills and Conagra — destroyed for months — could be the ones that make your year when the 8-day crosses back above the 20-day.

What Actually Broke on Friday (And What Didn't)

Friday's semi massacre wasn't a pandemic — it was a crowded-long unwind. Garrett maps exactly what cracked (software, quantum, space, Bitcoin, gold) versus what held (memory, chip equipment, defensives, regional banks), explains why the dollar crossing 100 is a collateral event, and identifies 7,451 as the institutional line that was defended and must not flip.

Today's Momentum List — and the CVS Call Spread Setup

Healthcare is the rotation trade: CVS, Eli Lilly, Humana, and ELV are the strongest breakout names. Coinbase, Pepsi, PayPal, and Tyson are the short side. Garrett then walks through a live CVS call spread structure — buy the $95 call, sell the $98, breakeven at $96.87 (right at VWAP), 50% probability of profit, 60% max return — and explains why to wait until 10:00 AM before pulling the trigger.

The Rewiring of Markets Nobody Told You About

In 2008 they didn't repair the machine — they tore the wiring out and built a new one. Government debt quadrupled and became the collateral the entire system borrows against. Six of every seven new dollars created globally goes to refinancing debt, not growth. Hedge funds replaced central banks as the marginal buyer of bonds — using borrowed money stacked on borrowed money. Garrett explains why this is the reason you're seeing violent V-shaped sell-offs, and why all roads still point toward higher equity prices long term.

Chipflation: The Micron Trade After the Gap

Memory prices are up six times in a year, the market is heading toward $890 billion, and supply stays tight through 2027. Micron jumped 10% Monday and led the entire bounce. But it already gapped — so Garrett's not chasing. He walks through the right approach: sell put spreads into the pullbacks, wait for the four standard deviation VWAP entry, and use leveraged ETFs like NVDL once momentum confirms. The move to watch: $94 to VWAP.

The BOJ Risk and How to Read the CPI Print Tomorrow

Every major central bank is tightening simultaneously — the Fed under a new chair whose team is debating hikes, the ECB hiking into a weakening Europe, and the Bank of Japan at its highest rates since 1995. Garrett explains what the BIS research on Swiss National Bank surprise moves tells us about how leveraged funds blow up on rate shocks, why the yen carry trade is the most dangerous unwind in the market, and what to watch in Friday's Commitment of Traders report before next week's Fed meeting.