I'd Trade That

Garrett's capital flow signal has gone negative before every major market crisis since COVID — Silicon Valley Bank, the gilt crisis, Liberation Day. Right now it's showing weakness. He walks through exactly what that means for today's market and what single number he's watching above everything else.

Hewlett Packard, Micron, Dell, Cisco, IBM — these are the names holding momentum. On the other side: insurance companies cracking on private credit concerns, Tyson and Conagra compressing on input costs, Coinbase under pressure. Garrett maps exactly where strength is concentrated and where the rot is spreading.

The capital wave isn't negative yet — and until it is, fighting the crowd in mega-cap tech is a losing battle. ETFs, CTAs, prime desks, and 0DTE dealers are all mechanically buying the same names every two weeks. Garrett explains the exact signal that gives you permission to finally take aim at the S&P and semiconductor index.

A 16% move off the lows. The only other times this has happened outside of a recession: 1987, right before Black Monday. Garrett draws the parallel, explains how behavioral finance turns these events into momentum cascades, and lays out why deficits — not fundamentals — are the real engine behind this market.

Software ran 14 straight days on a short squeeze — and that's typically how tops form. Funds started selling the week before. Now IGV is hovering at its 8-day moving average. Garrett walks through the exact put spread structure: entry level, strike selection, expiration, and the one price action signal that tells you to walk away and wait.

China suspended sulfuric acid exports through December. ANZ sees up to 6% supply at risk. Hormuz carries half the world's traded sulfur. Every financial newsletter just became a sulfur expert — and that's exactly the problem. Garrett shows why the smarter trade is waiting for copper to pull back to its 100-day moving average before selling spreads into Southern Copper.

Bitcoin is under extreme pressure — $2.5 billion left ETFs in May, MicroStrategy is selling, and a colleague is calling $53K. Garrett teaches the IBIT VWAP setup live: where to buy (third standard deviation band), how many contracts, when to scale out on the way back to VWAP, when to let the last one run, and the exact line that tells you you're done for the day.

Crude inventories just hit their lowest level since 2004. Devon got an $8 billion offer for its Marcellus assets. EQT upgraded at Moody's the same week. Garrett breaks down the OILU — the triple-bull upstream oil ETN — shows three bounces off the 100-day moving average, and explains why Devon and APA are the cleanest way to play the next energy move when RSI turns oversold.